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Development Question

By Action-Jackson
4/29/2022 8:54 am
If a player has negative development when they're young (like below) do they ever turn it around and start developing well again?

Team: Free Agent
Trade Score: 37
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 241 (2% below average)
Age: 23
Experience: 2
Your Rating: 33/70
Default Rating: 28/61
From Start: +4/-6
This Season: +0/-1

Re: Development Question

By Legendruthless
4/29/2022 10:57 am
Action-Jackson wrote:
If a player has negative development when they're young (like below) do they ever turn it around and start developing well again?

Team: Free Agent
Trade Score: 37
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 241 (2% below average)
Age: 23
Experience: 2
Your Rating: 33/70
Default Rating: 28/61
From Start: +4/-6
This Season: +0/-1


Unfortunately no. They will continue to decline until there is no more room to lose skills. The opposite is true when they boom and they will continue to grow.

Re: Development Question

By raymattison21
4/29/2022 7:42 pm
Both are true and false. A player with really low volatility will go up and down minutely but it is hard to notice unless you look at the progress chart over a longer period of time . And as a player trends in weight his overall will be effected as the weight changes.

Re: Development Question

By jackals
5/14/2022 4:03 pm
I posted this in the WPFL Discord for the new GMs, but I'll repost here:

Volatility is a measure of variance (boom/bust potential). Players have a hidden variable that determines their tendency toward a final set of attributes (aka future ratings). This distinction of tendency vs target is important -- target is the current set of expected future attributes, and tendency is the slope of the linear function that is processed every update to change players' current and future ratings based on the direction (positive/negative) and magnitude of the tendency value.

From what I've been able to glean, when a player is generated, his current and future attributes are all set, along with volatility. Once those are in place, the hidden tendency value is set within a certain acceptable range of values -- the higher the volatility, the wider positive and negative these values are. We are never able to see what tendency is, but we can estimate the range it's in based on volatility, and player progress over time is directly tied to this value. Progress has different multipliers based on which update is processing (e.g., training camp is the equivalent of about 3-7 games of progress, progress slows over time, etc.).

Note that these changes are unrelated to aging players, which follows a completely different process.

There are a few important lessons we can take from this:
1. Tendency does not change. Once a player is busting/booming at a particular degree, the change will tend toward zero over time, but it will not increase in magnitude or change in direction (busting players will never boom and vice versa).
2. A player with high volatility won't necessarily boom/bust -- they're just more likely to trend further up/down.
3. A player with maxed future skills and high volatility has equal chances between reaching max future skills and busting.


As Ray said above, there are slight seemingly random movements in attributes that occur in every update, but these movements are usually not noticeable in players who are trending upward or downward and are so small that they are effectively irrelevant except over longer timelines (multiple seasons). Generally speaking, you know after a player's very first training camp if they are booming or busting, and they never stop moving in that direction until age becomes a negative factor around 29 (quick caveat: if a player drastically loses weight, a busting player can temporarily appear to boom during the weight loss due to speed/acceleration gains).

Re: Development Question

By raymattison21
5/14/2022 9:13 pm
https://ncaa.myfootballnow.com/player/6895

Minute as they may be this guy peaks or stays flat and drops every so slightly under my weights. He must be a low volatility bust that took awhile

overalls are just compositions of your weights. So with a low volatility guy they could have one rating rise every so slightly and another drop .... the key here is how you value your weights. We are all similar here but omitting/or a low setting in one or two key ratings while the ratings are randomly maxing out quickly [(which this part is random ) Like volatility a 50/50 shot] but when both in unison overalls will do small different things.

I don’t value run blocking and highly value pass blocking. So for example this center , he maxed
Pass blocking fast and run blocking slower . To me under my weights he would bust less to none. As if pass blocking progressed slower and run maxed quicker his overall would be lower and appeared to bust harder. It is not set I have seen guys retire not fully maxed but almost all that busted are. This part has been tweaked.

A 96 volatility LBer at 259 pounds converted to dB because he had 85 speed and 88/99 bump with 43/56 man most likely will go up in overalls due to the losss in weight even though he is a high volatility bust. Possibly finishing at 96 spd 91 bump and 49 man puts him as a safe high
Volatility player to draft

So yes and no is still where I will leave cause of this. I bet he could tweak to go up and down more drastically. As the idea has been tossed around plenty. He has told me personally there is no “tell” cause it is not set. There’s definitely limits though. As admiral has a true dB wit 50 pass catching! I always see new parameters but there are super rare.

Re: Development Question

By CrazySexyBeast
5/14/2022 9:37 pm
raymattison21 wrote:

A 96 volatility LBer at 259 pounds converted to dB because he had 85 speed and 88/99 bump with 43/56 man most likely will go up in overalls due to the losss in weight even though he is a high volatility bust. Possibly finishing at 96 spd 91 bump and 49 man puts him as a safe high
Volatility player to draft


Are you high? Surely you dont mean earlier than the late 6th thru 7th round.
I know speed kills, yadda, but 49M2M for a LB - much less a CB? Are you DAFT?
Desperation pick, and I guarantee I can find a better one - especially when one takes into account the position change penalties pre Training Camp.
Holy smokes. What terrible advice.
Last edited at 5/14/2022 9:43 pm

Re: Development Question

By Action-Jackson
5/14/2022 11:16 pm
This forum is kind of well 'interesting' to me. A fair amount of conflicting advice which isn't necessarily bad but the divisiveness is wild. I'm really into an MMA simulator game and the community is great overall. You would think a bunch of fight fans would all be aggro lol. I guess this game is basically dying or dead so there's that but so is the mma game. :) Anyway thanks for responding guys I do appreciate it and I still enjoy the game if at a lesser level over time.

Re: Development Question

By raymattison21
5/15/2022 6:15 am
CrazySexyBeast wrote:
raymattison21 wrote:

A 96 volatility LBer at 259 pounds converted to dB because he had 85 speed and 88/99 bump with 43/56 man most likely will go up in overalls due to the losss in weight even though he is a high volatility bust. Possibly finishing at 96 spd 91 bump and 49 man puts him as a safe high
Volatility player to draft


Are you high? Surely you dont mean earlier than the late 6th thru 7th round.
I know speed kills, yadda, but 49M2M for a LB - much less a CB? Are you DAFT?
Desperation pick, and I guarantee I can find a better one - especially when one takes into account the position change penalties pre Training Camp.
Holy smokes. What terrible advice.


Just reverse man and bump to your preferences. The point is in how quickly some grow and how slowly others do.