i do intend to make a statistical study at some point but it seems to be very clear that the completion rate % in multiple coverage situations is ridiculously high.
Just using this play as an example - which evolves into a double coverage and, before the pass is caught, into a quintuple coverage: (for best effect, watch it in slow motion)
https://mfn11.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/3967#709532One of the problems with the passing game in MFN is that game events are entirely devoid of strategy elements - results seem to be dictated far more by exploits in the code or just wild probabilities of random chance that are entirely unrealistic.
From the point of view of a defensive coordinator, assigning to 2 players to cover 1 is an extreme strategy. The play field has to be covered with only 11 players and in most cases every player is matching up with one player on the opponent's side. This is important with run/blocking and ESPECIALLY critical in pass defense where a single slip anywhere can result in 6.
When a coach assigns more than one player to a single opponent player, he is creating holes elsewhere that can be exploited, especially by good, experienced QBs. In most cases, when a QB comes to the line and sees 2 players lined up on one of his receivers, he is schooled to not even think about throwing to him except in complete desperation. Depending on his level of training, he will throw to someone else or audible. Throwing to a guy triple covered at the line is not an option. But it happens in the game all the time, to an incredibly unrealistic degree.
Although i haven't made the study yet, i am sure the completion percentage of throwing into double coverage situations is reduced over single coverage: however it should be pretty close to zero. If the real-life case only reduced this % by a few points, then it is a strategy that would never be adopted.
Last edited at 7/04/2017 10:49 am